In mid-May, Russia and Ukraine were in discussions about a prisoner transfer. Such discussions were the first such direct talks the two nations had in three years. Now on June 1, even President Trump admits he is frustrated on how Putin has pivoted and has intensified aerial attacks in Ukraine in late May. Analysts say the brutal campaign is part of a deliberate strategy by Russia that is designed to create an impression that it has the upper hand in the conflict. Trump had put ending the war as a high priority in his presidential campaign. According to CNN, he has been flip-flopping between threatening to punish Russia with more sanctions if it doesn’t sign up to a ceasefire proposal and suggesting he could walk away from the issue altogether.
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky is suggesting that lack of increasing sanctions against Russia from America encourages Putin to continue to escalate his military attacks. The Institute for the Study of War, a US-based conflict monitor, said that Russia’s new aerial assault is part of the strategy to create the illusion that it is winning the war. Simultaneously, Putin is continuing to add new conditions to a cease fire proposal to make it appear he is genuinely working toward peace. It does not help Ukraine’s effort that Trump has indicated a disposition for abandoning Ukraine militarily; to the point of pausing financial assistance temporarily once this year already.
The last two weeks has seen Ukraine launch drone attacks leading to at least two Moscow airports, Vnukovo and Zhukovsky, having to suspend flights. Russian responded with drones hitting the Ukrainian city of Kharkiv, injuring eight people including a child. Putin has become dismissive of Trump, characterizing Trump’s recent criticisms as ’emotional overload’. Dmitry Medvedev, Russia’s former prime minister and president has accused the U.S. of creating an environment that could lead to World War III by stating that Putin is ‘playing with fire’. Heading into June, Russia has amassed 50,000 troops on the Ukrainian border. Kyiv has ordered the evacuation of at least 11 villages ahead of the Russian assault.
In reaction to Russia’s initial invasion of Ukraine, Finland and Sweden opted to join NATO fearing Putin might turn to annexing neighboring nations following a quick Ukraine takeover. The two nations, as well as most European countries, have substantially increased their military budgets. Europe is likely to react to a Russian offensive in Ukraine with continued strong condemnation, increased military and economic support for Ukraine, and further sanctions against Russia. The EU is also expected to strengthen its own defense capabilities and further coordinate with allies within NATO and the G7, ( the political and economic nations group consisting of Canada, Germany, Japan, Italy, France, the U.K. and U.S.)
EU leaders have consistently condemned Russia’s actions in Ukraine and have shown unwavering solidarity with Ukraine and its people. The EU is expected to impose further sanctions on Russia in response to its actions, potentially targeting key sectors like energy or finance.

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The imminent escalation of Russian attacks will most certainly bring an increase in sanctions from European countries. The severity of the offensive may be heavy enough to bring about concessions from Ukrainian President Zelenskyy leading to a cease fire even amid protests from the West. Analysts are divided on if a cease fire will eventually lead to peace, or if peace will only come about following a series of cease fire negotiation failures the likes of which have plagued the Middle East. The war could end when one or both sides reach a point of exhaustion, where their economies, military capabilities, and the will of their populations are no longer strong enough to support continuing the conflict.
Putin’s initial aspirations were to work toward a restoration of Soviet Cold War power position. The conflict between Russia and Ukraine and the potential for escalation, including the use of nuclear weapons, is unlikely although still a major concern. Most experts predict nuclear conflicts would be more likely from the Middle East, the Korean Peninsula, and the South Asian region.
Ultimately, the Russia-Ukraine war is a complex and ongoing conflict, and its duration is uncertain. Experts offer various scenarios, including a long attritional war, a frozen conflict with an armistice, or a victory for either side, but the exact path remains to be seen.

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